{"id":102460,"date":"2017-01-01T11:05:07","date_gmt":"2017-01-01T11:05:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gerdtestpress.online\/?guid=38bdf12fa16939efedb98256a317787d"},"modified":"2017-01-01T11:05:07","modified_gmt":"2017-01-01T11:05:07","slug":"the-long-term-jobs-killer-automation-great-nyt-read","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/futuristgerd.com\/pt\/2017\/01\/the-long-term-jobs-killer-automation-great-nyt-read\/","title":{"rendered":"O assassino de empregos a longo prazo \u00e9 a automatiza\u00e7\u00e3o (excelente leitura atrav\u00e9s do NYT )"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cGlobalization is clearly responsible for some of the job losses, particularly trade with China during the 2000s, which led to the rapid loss of 2 million to 2.4 million net jobs, according to research by economists including Daron Acemoglu and David Autor of M.I.T.<\/p>\n

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People who work in parts of the country most affected by imports generally have greater unemployment and reduced income for the rest of their lives, Mr. Autor found in a paper published in January. Still, over time, automation has had a far bigger effect than globalization, and would have eventually eliminated those jobs anyway, he said in an interview. \u201cSome of it is globalization, but a lot of it is we require many fewer workers to do the same amount of work,\u201d he said. \u201cWorkers are basically supervisors of machines.\u201d\u00a0When Greg Hayes, the chief executive of United Technologies, agreed to invest $16 million in one of its Carrier factories as part of a Trump deal to keep some jobs in Indiana instead of moving them to Mexico, he said the money would go toward automation.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat that ultimately means is there will be fewer jobs,\u201d he said on CNBC.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Take the steel industry. It lost 400,000 people, 75 percent of its work force, between 1962 and 2005. But its shipments did not decline, according to a study published in the American Economic Review last year. The reason was a new technology called the minimill. Its effect remained strong even after controlling for management practices; job losses in the Midwest; international trade; and unionization rates, found the authors of the study, Allan Collard-Wexler of Duke and Jan De Loecker of Princeton.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It\u2019s Automation.<\/a><\/p>\n

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My\u00a0summary:<\/p>\n

Globalization + automation + cognification = technological unemployment<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Find out more about my new book <\/b>‘Technology vs Humanity'<\/b><\/a>, read the <\/b>TVH cheat sheet<\/b><\/a>, buy the <\/b>book on Amazon<\/b><\/a> (this link automatically takes you to your local amazon site), or order it\u00a0<\/b>directly from my publisher<\/b><\/a> (all formats;\u00a0bulk orders at a discount)<\/b><\/p>\n

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\"A globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 claramente respons\u00e1vel por algumas das perdas de emprego, em particular o com\u00e9rcio com a China durante a d\u00e9cada de 2000, que levou \u00e0 r\u00e1pida perda de 2 milh\u00f5es a 2,4 milh\u00f5es de postos de trabalho l\u00edquidos, de acordo com estudos efectuados por economistas como Daron Acemoglu e David Autor do M.I.T.<\/p>\n

As pessoas que trabalham nas zonas do pa\u00eds mais afectadas pelas importa\u00e7\u00f5es t\u00eam geralmente mais desemprego e rendimentos reduzidos para o resto das suas vidas, concluiu Autor num estudo publicado em janeiro. No entanto, ao longo do tempo, a automatiza\u00e7\u00e3o teve um efeito muito maior do que a globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o e, de qualquer forma, teria acabado por eliminar esses postos de trabalho, afirmou numa entrevista. \"Uma parte \u00e9 a globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o, mas uma grande parte \u00e9 o facto de precisarmos de muito menos trabalhadores para fazer a mesma quantidade de trabalho\", afirmou. \"Os trabalhadores s\u00e3o basicamente supervisores de m\u00e1quinas\".<\/p>\n

Quando Greg Hayes, o diretor executivo da United Technologies, concordou em investir $16 milh\u00f5es numa das suas f\u00e1bricas da Carrier como parte de um acordo de Trump para manter alguns postos de trabalho no Indiana em vez de os transferir para o M\u00e9xico, disse que o dinheiro iria para a automatiza\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

\"O que isso significa, em \u00faltima an\u00e1lise, \u00e9 que haver\u00e1 menos empregos\", disse ele na CNBC.<\/p>\n

Vejamos o caso da ind\u00fastria sider\u00fargica. Perdeu 400.000 pessoas, 75% da sua for\u00e7a de trabalho, entre 1962 e 2005. Mas as suas vendas n\u00e3o diminu\u00edram, de acordo com um estudo publicado na American Economic Review no ano passado. A raz\u00e3o foi uma nova tecnologia chamada \"minimill\". O seu efeito manteve-se forte mesmo depois de controlar as pr\u00e1ticas de gest\u00e3o, a perda de postos de trabalho no Midwest, o com\u00e9rcio internacional e as taxas de sindicaliza\u00e7\u00e3o, conclu\u00edram os autores do estudo, Allan Collard-Wexler da Duke e Jan De Loecker de Princeton.\"<\/p>\n

O assassino de empregos a longo prazo n\u00e3o \u00e9 a China. \u00c9 a automa\u00e7\u00e3o.
https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/12\/21\/upshot\/the-long-term-jobs-killer-is-not-china-its-automation.html<\/a>
via Instapaper<\/div>\n

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Resumo de Gerd: <\/p>\n

Globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o + automatiza\u00e7\u00e3o + cognifica\u00e7\u00e3o = desemprego tecnol\u00f3gico<\/p>\n

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