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Stanford University One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence 2016 Report (AI100)

“As a society, we are underinvesting resources in research on the societal implications of AI technologies. Private and public dollars should be directed toward interdisciplinary teams capable of analyzing AI from multiple angles.”

The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence, launched in the fall of 2014, is a long-term investigation of the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its influences on people, their communities, and society. It considers the science, engineering, and deployment of AI-enabled computing systems. As its core activity, the Standing Committee that oversees the One Hundred Year Study forms a Study Panel every five years to assess the current state of AI. The Study Panel reviews AI’s progress in the years following the immediately prior report, envisions the potential advances that lie ahead, and describes the technical and societal challenges and opportunities these advances raise, including in such arenas as ethics, economics, and the design of systems compatible with human cognition. The overarching purpose of the One Hundred Year Study's periodic expert review is to provide a collected and connected set of reflections about AI and its influences as the field advances. The studies are expected to develop syntheses and assessments that provide expert-informed guidance for directions in AI research, development, and systems design, as well as programs and policies to help ensure that these systems broadly benefit individuals and society.

I read this must read document and highlighted some remarkable findings from the study – much inline with Gerd‘s and my own thinking on this blog.

“Many have already grown accustomed to touching and talking to their smart phones. People’s future relationships with machines will become ever more nuanced, fluid, and personalized.”

“Society is now at a crucial juncture in determining how to deploy AI-based technologies in ways that promote rather than hinder democratic values such as freedom, equality, and transparency.”

“Longer term, AI may be thought of as a radically different mechanism for wealth creation in which everyone should be entitled to a portion of the world’s AI-produced treasures.”

“Misunderstandings about what AI is and is not could fuel opposition to technologies with the potential to benefit everyone. Poorly informed regulation that stifles innovation would be a tragic mistake.”

“Human intelligence has no match in the biological and artificial worlds for sheer versatility, with the abilities “to reason, achieve goals, understand and generate language… create art and music, and even write histories.”

“Natural Language Processing is a very active area of machine perception. Research is now shifting towards developing systems that are able to interact with people through dialog, not just react to stylized requests.”

“Ethical questions arise when programming cars to act in situations in which human injury or death is inevitable, especially when there are split-second choices to be made about whom to put at risk.”

“AI-based applications could improve health outcomes and quality of life for millions of people in the coming years—but only if they gain the trust of doctors, nurses, and patients.”

“Though quality education will always require active engagement by human teachers, AI promises to enhance education at all levels, especially by providing personalization at scale.”

“It can be argued that AI is the secret sauce that has enabled instructors, particularly in higher education, to multiply the size of their classrooms by a few orders of magnitude—class sizes of a few tens of thousands are not uncommon.”

“While formal education will not disappear, the Study Panel believes that MOOCs and other forms of online education will become part of learning at all levels, from K-12 through university, in a blended classroom experience.”

“AI will likely replace tasks rather than jobs in the near term, and will also create new kinds of jobs. But the new jobs that will emerge are harder to imagine in advance than the existing jobs that will likely be lost.”

“As labor becomes a less important factor in production as compared to owning intellectual capital, a majority of citizens may find the value of their labor insufficient to pay for a socially acceptable standard of living.”

“AI will increasingly enable entertainment that is more interactive, personalized, and engaging. Research should be directed toward understanding how to leverage these attributes for individuals’ and society’s benefit.”

“The measure of success for AI applications is the value they create for human lives. Going forward, the ease with which people use and adapt to AI applications will likewise largely determine their success.”

“AI could widen existing inequalities of opportunity if access to AI technologies—along with the high-powered computation and large- scale data that fuel many of them—is unfairly distributed across society.”

“Like other technologies, AI has the potential to be used for good or nefarious purposes. A vigorous and informed debate about how to best steer AI in ways that enrich our lives and our society is an urgent and vital need.”

Download the One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100) 2016 report (PDF version).

Featured Image Credit: Askold Romanov, Mlenny & Tricia Seibold

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