Mark Carney on how a post-covid economy must yield to human values
“First, the crisis is likely to accelerate the fragmentation of the global economy. Until a vaccine has been found and widely applied, travel restrictions will remain. Even afterwards, local resilience will be prized over global efficiency”
Destroyed by low cash-flow?
“Second, much of the enterprise value of companies will be taken up by extraordinary financial support and destroyed by lost cashflow. Their higher debt will increase the riskiness of the underlying equity and weigh on the capacity for growth”
Trying to achieve anti-fragility?
“Third, the searing experience of the simultaneous health and economic crises will change how companies balance risk and resilience. We are entering a world in which firms will be expected to prepare for black swans by valuing anti-fragility, as the writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb called them, and planning for catastrophe”
Facing fears and anxiety
“Fourth, people’s economic narratives will change. After decades of risk being downloaded onto individuals, the bill has arrived, and people do not know how to pay it. Entire populations are experiencing the fears of the unemployed and sensing the anxiety that comes with inadequate or inaccessible health care. These lessons will not soon be forgotten. They will have lasting consequences for sectors that rely on aggressive borrowing by households, a booming housing market and a vibrant gig economy”