The future of work and jobs is becoming a hot-potato topic as the Megashifts such as automation, cognification, robotisation and virtualisation loom large - and now these trends are seriously accelerated by the Covid-19 crisis, as well
The best excerpts from Futurist Gerd Leonhard’s recent keynotes and interviews, on topics such as Technology and Humanity, the Megashifts and Digital Ethics
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Tim Renner & Gerd Leonhard Beitrag in „Die Welt”. Wacht auf! Mensch, Technologie und die Zukunft der Politik (MIT VIDEO) German / French
Erschienen am 11.8.2018 in DIE WELT (Achtung: Paywall). Post auf ...
“What should be immediately apparent is that as the number of oil rigs declined due to falling oil prices, so did the number of workers the oil industry employed. But when the number of oil rigs began to rebound, the number of workers employed d...
In an interview with the MIT Tech Review, economist Erik Brynjolfsson said, “My reading of the data is that technology is the main driver of the recent increases in inequality. It’s the biggest factor.”
Which begs the question: what happens as automation and AI technologies become more advanced and capable?”
Artificial Intelligence And Income Inequality
The Gradual Disappearance of Jobs
A recent study found 50% of occupations today will be gone by 2020, and a 2013 Oxford study forecasted that 47% of jobs will be automated by 2034. A Ball State study found that only 13% of manufacturing job losses were due to trade, the rest from automation. A McKinsey study suggests 45% of knowledge work activity can be automated.
94% of the new job creation since 2005 is in the gig economy. These aren’t stable jobs with benefits on a career path. And if you are driving for Uber, your employer’s plan is to automate your job. Amazon has 270k employees, but most are soon-t0-be-automated ops and fulfillment. Facebook has 15k employees and a 330B market cap, and Snapchat in August had double their market cap per employee, at $48M per employee. The economic impact of Tech was raising productivity, but productivity and wages have been stagnant in recent years.”
The Coming Tech Backlash – NewCo Shift
From 1974 to 1979, the Canadian government partnered with the province of Manitoba to run an experiment on the idea of providing a minimum income to residents called MINCOME.
MINCOME was a guaranteed annual income offered to every eligible family in Dauphin, a prairie town of about 10,000, and smaller numbers of residents in Winnipeg and some rural communities throughout the province.
So what happened to families receiving MINCOME?
They had fewer hospitalizations
They had fewer accidents and injuries
Mental health hospitalizations fell dramatically
High school graduation rates increased
Younger adolescent girls were less likely to give birth before age 25, and when they did, they had fewer kids”
Is Universal Basic Income the Answer to an Automated Future?