The very word ‘normal’ has become kind of useless, and the idea of ‘business as usual’ is becoming laughable, as well. Instead, attempting to ‘pivot’ (switching horses in midstream) has become our new routine. Just ask AirBnB, Uber or Carnival Cruises, or any airline CEO, event organiser, restaurant owner or... futurist!
What happens when 3 senior futurists get together and talk about their combined 75 years of experience, discuss how Covid-19 is changing their lives and their roles, and ponder what they see coming towards us in the next 5-10 years? Find out more in this new episode of Gerd.Live
The term used to describe this approach to decision-making is satisficing. And satisficing with an eye toward a radically uncertain future might be called robust satisficing. Satisficing is a form of insurance – insurance against financial meltdowns, global pandemics, nasty bosses, boring teachers and crappy roommates. Insurance can seem stodgy – like the guy who wears a belt and suspenders. Perhaps we don’t need both, but what happens if we have neither?
This is part 1 of my virtual keynote at the Brazil Futures Summit on June 19, 2020, showcasing my new virtual keynote style with immersive 'weather-man animations'. For more details on the event please go to https://wfuturismo.com/summit/ In this talk I share my thoughts on the with/post corona future and what I call the Great Transformation: BigTech, BigHealth BigState. Survive, collaborate, show solidarity, adapt, transform.
The potential goes beyond diagnosis and treatment. Getting appointments, paying ...
If you're interested in AI, you should really watch this video: Turing Lecture: Provably beneficial AI with Stuart Russell
Read more about this event here. My Futures Agency colleague ...
Must-read report by PEW Research: Experts Say Digital Disruption Will Hurt Democracy
“It took them two years to examine the data, with ...
“Officials across the EU and North America are finally realizing ...
Futurist Gerd Leonhard's notes on Stuart Russell's powerful new book on AI: Human Compatible
This article accompanies today's release of my new film “How the Future Works”. First, I’ll show what’s happening right now, and why I think it’s urgent to ponder the future of work, jobs, education and training. Then I’ll talk about what we, personally, can do: and lastly I’ll lay out what governments and societies need to do to ensure that our future will be mostly heaven.
A great deal turns on the status of tacit knowledge. On this much the champions of a machine learning-powered revival of command economics and their critics agree. Tacit knowledge is the kind of cognition we refer to when we say that we know more than we can tell. How do you ride a bike? No one can say with any precision. Supervision helps, but a beginner has to figure it out for herself. How do you know that a spot is a freckle and not a cancer? A specialist cannot teach a medical student simply by spelling out her thinking in words. The student has to practise under supervision until she has mastered the skill for herself. This kind of know-how cannot be imparted or downloaded. Can robots assimilate tacit knowledge? Mid-20th-century arguments against centralised planning assumed that they could not. Some of the achievements of machine learning – such as eclipsing specialist doctors at spotting cancer – suggest otherwise. If robots can retain tacit knowledge, AI-powered central planning might well outperform decentralised market interactions in coordinating economic activity. But there is good reason to believe that the mid-century anti-planners were right. Tacit knowledge will probably remain the preserve of....
Pretty cool event here in Copenhagen today: Digital Copenhagen 2019. ...
“Over 1 million knowledge-work jobs will be replaced in 2020 ...
“San Francisco of about two dozen tinkerers, Jonathan Toomim argued ...
Gerd is a Futurist and a humanist, a leading global keynote speaker (on-stage as well as virtually), the author of 5 books including ‘Technology vs. Humanity’ and a film-maker. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society for the Arts in London, and the CEO of The Futures Agency in Zürich / Switzerland. People, Planet, Purpose and Prosperity is Gerd's credo, and The Good Future is his passion.
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